How will Brexit affect property prices – the answer changes probably by the day, depending on whether a so-called “no-deal” or disorderly departure happens or not.
Even with a few weeks or so still to go, a commentary in Landlord Today on the 26th of February played down some of the doom and gloom forecast by many analysts in the event of no deal.
Cast in the image of the leading gloom-mongers, the Bank of England has predicted a catastrophe worse than the financial crisis in 2008, with a crash that results in an 8% drop in GDP, an increase in unemployment rates to around 7.5%, a surge in interest rates up to 6.5%, and a plunge in property prices of an alarming 30%.
Landlord Today, countered with alternative findings that – even in the event of a no-deal Brexit – the Bank of England may have it all wrong on property values.
The website conceded that the path to Brexit has undoubtedly adversely affected the housing market over the course of the past year – a sentiment echoed by 41% of respondents in one survey, who also expected that trend to continue.
But respondents also believed that a reduced number of property transactions may simply cause prices to stagnate for as long as three years or so, rather than plunge to anything like the extent predicted by the Bank of England.
20% of those surveyed are hoping for property prices to increase over the next 12 months with this growing to over a quarter - 27% - next year and a third - 32% - for 2020.
Whether Britain leaves without any agreement from Europe, whether the Prime Minister succeeds in getting Parliament’s agreement to a deal, whether there is a delay, or whether there is even a second referendum, of course, all still remains to be seen.